Collingwood v CarltonMCG
COLL
Magpies
CARLTIP
Blues
2026: Blues 83–88 Magpies (Round 6) · Magpies 90–69 Blues (Round 19)
HARRISON'S DERBY MULTI · AFL
AFL tips with my price on both sides of any matchup, rated from every game of 2026
- Blues v Magpiesv Magpies · MCG$1.77
- Crows v Powerv Power · Adelaide Oval$1.26
- Dockers v Eaglesv Eagles · Optus Stadium$1.13
- Lions v Sunsv Suns · Gabba$1.23
4-leg multi at my prices
$3.10
$20 returns
$62.00
My prices come from my ratings, not a bookie; a bookie's price on the same side is usually shorter. 18+ · Gamble responsibly · We may earn a commission.
Every derby, both sides
Tap a price to swap it into your multi. TIP marks my side. Prices are mine, worked out from my ratings as at 27 September 2026; how I set them.
ShowdownAdelaide Oval
ADELTIP
Crows
PORT
Power
2026: Crows 76–75 Power (Round 8) · Power 97–71 Crows (Round 16)
Western DerbyOptus Stadium
WCE
Eagles
FRETIP
Dockers
2026: Eagles 41–97 Dockers (Round 6) · Dockers 112–42 Eagles (Round 20)
QClashGabba
BLTIP
Lions
GCFC
Suns
2026: Suns 75–106 Lions (Round 13) · Lions 95–53 Suns (Round 23)
Sydney DerbySCG
SYDTIP
Swans
GWS
Giants
2026: Swans 107–66 Giants (Round 6) · Giants 88–139 Swans (Round 20)
Collingwood v EssendonMCG
COLLTIP
Magpies
ESS
Bombers
2026: Bombers 60–137 Magpies (Round 7)
YOUR MULTI · 4 LEGS$3.10$20 returns $62.00
Compare bookiesMy ratings on 2026 · 146 of 215 · 68%
Each call used only results from before that match. BACK-TEST, NOT PICKS POSTED AT THE TIME
Qualifying & Elimination Finals3/4
- miss
- right
- right
- right
Biggest miss: Hawks won at my $3.09
Semi Finals2/2
- right
- right
No misses
Preliminary Finals0/2
- miss
- miss
Biggest miss: Dockers won at my $3.33
Grand Final1/1
- right
No misses
Here are my AFL tips as prices, not predictions of a winner. I rated all 18 clubs from 218 games of 2026, from the Opening Round in March to Brisbane's win over Fremantle in the Grand Final. Pick any two clubs below and you get my price for both sides, which you can hold up against a bookie's odds on the same game before you decide whether a bet is worth it.
The ratings after Brisbane's third flag
Ratings are in points. Two ratings plus the home edge give the margin I expect, so the Lions at 22.2 would start about 22 points better than a side rated 0 on a neutral ground. The ladder columns show the 2026 home-and-away finish.
| # | Club | Rating | Ladder | W–L | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions | 22.2 | 3 | 16–7 | 121.7 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans | 21.8 | 2 | 18–5 | 136.1 |
| 3 | Geelong Cats | 19.4 | 5 | 15–8 | 122.3 |
| 4 | Fremantle | 18.5 | 1 | 19–4 | 137.2 |
| 5 | Hawthorn | 16.5 | 4 | 15–6–2 | 120.1 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows | 9.2 | 6 | 15–8 | 117.3 |
| 7 | Carlton | 9.1 | 10 | 12–10–1 | 101.5 |
| 8 | Melbourne | 7.5 | 7 | 15–8 | 109.6 |
| 9 | Collingwood | 0.7 | 9 | 12–9–2 | 102.4 |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | -0.6 | 8 | 13–9–1 | 95.4 |
| 11 | GWS Giants | -0.9 | 12 | 10–13 | 98.9 |
| 12 | St Kilda | -2.8 | 11 | 10–13 | 102.8 |
| 13 | Gold Coast Suns | -5.8 | 13 | 9–14 | 94.5 |
| 14 | North Melbourne | -7.9 | 14 | 9–14 | 88.8 |
| 15 | Port Adelaide | -16.2 | 15 | 7–16 | 88.1 |
| 16 | West Coast Eagles | -26.8 | 16 | 4–19 | 69.2 |
| 17 | Richmond | -29.9 | 17 | 3–20 | 62.5 |
| 18 | Essendon | -34.1 | 18 | 2–21 | 64.6 |
Fremantle won the minor premiership at 19–4 and still sit fourth here, because the ratings count finals too, and Brisbane beat them by seven points in the Grand Final. The top five are close enough that ground, not reputation, decides most of their meetings.
Price any AFL matchup
Choose the home side, the away side and the ground. A club at its own ground gets 3 points; if the visitor has flown in from another state, the home edge grows to 10.
The travel penalty is the biggest single number in my AFL model. A Perth or Brisbane side playing at home against a Victorian club starts with a head start worth more than the gap between most mid-table ratings.
How the ratings went in 2026
The ratings picked the winner in 146 of 215 games that had a winner, or 68%; there were 3 draws. Each call used only results from before the game. That makes it a fair test of the method, not a record of tips I posted at the time.
| Part of the season | Right | Games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Round to Round 8 | 47 | 71 | 66% |
| Round 9 to Grand Final | 99 | 144 | 69% |
| My favourite at $1.50 or shorter | 70 | 84 | 83% |
| Home side, with a home edge | 114 | 194 | 59% |
AFL results follow ratings more closely than rugby league. With 80 to 100 points a side, one lucky bounce moves the margin less, so a clear favourite wins more often.
Where the ratings were most wrong
| Round | Winner | Beat | Score | My price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 19 | Bombers | Giants | 67–64 | $4.27 |
| Round 20 | Magpies | Crows | 108–74 | $3.84 |
| Round 17 | Lions | Cats | 123–101 | $3.77 |
| Round 17 | Giants | Dockers | 109–88 | $3.59 |
| Round 24 | Suns | Saints | 103–80 | $3.57 |
The longest AFL upset in my back-test was around $4, against more than $15 in the NRL. That is the same point from the other side: in the AFL, the side that should win usually does, so the value is rarely in backing long shots.
What AFL tipping experts count, and what they skip
A tipping comp scores one number: games tipped correctly. It is a fair measure for a comp. For betting it leaves out the price, and in the AFL the price is most of the story, because the favourite wins so often.
Two tipsters can both finish on 150 correct. One took favourites at $1.20 all year; the other found the $2.50 winners. On a bookie's prices those are very different seasons. When you read any tip, including mine, look for the price next to it.
My price tells you what a side is worth to me; only a bookie's price tells you what it pays. I list six licensed bookies with their PayID, minimum deposit and withdrawal times, as each one states them.
Compare the bookies for footy18+ · Gamble responsibly · Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858 · We may earn a commission.
Six derbies on one page
The cards at the top of this page cover Collingwood v Carlton, the Showdown, the Western Derby, the QClash, the Sydney Derby and Collingwood v Essendon. In every one of them both clubs share a state, so there is no travel penalty and the home edge is just 3 points. Tap a price on any card and the slip rebuilds the multi at my numbers.
Before the 2027 season
The AFL has set Round 1 from Wednesday 17 or Thursday 18 March to Sunday 21 March 2027, with all 18 clubs playing and no Opening Round. Gather Round is 8 to 11 April, the home-and-away season ends on 30 August, and the Grand Final is Saturday 2 October 2027. The full fixture is expected in mid-November.
Early premiership and ladder calls for 2027 are on AFL predictions 2027, and the leg-by-leg working behind a multi is on AFL multi tips.
Questions punters ask
Where are your AFL tips for this week?
The calculator on this page prices any AFL matchup from my ratings. The 2026 season finished with the Grand Final on 26 September; Round 1 of 2027 runs from Wednesday 17 or Thursday 18 March to Sunday 21 March, and the fixture is due in November.
How much is home ground worth in the AFL?
In my ratings, 3 points at your own ground and 10 when the visitor crosses a state line. In 2026 the home side won 114 of 194 games where one side was at home, or 59%.
How often do AFL favourites win?
Sides I priced at $1.50 or shorter won 70 of 84 games in my 2026 back-test, or 83%. Short AFL favourites win more often than short NRL ones because a bigger score spreads the result out.
Who won the 2026 AFL premiership?
Brisbane, 14.12 (96) to Fremantle's 12.17 (89) at the MCG on Saturday 26 September 2026. It was their third premiership in a row.
What is the AFL tipping experts' record?
Each tipster publishes their own. When you compare one with another, ask for the price behind each tip too: a season of short favourites and a season of long shots can end on the same total.
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: rated all 218 AFL games of 2026, Opening Round to the Grand Final, from the AFL's own match data, back-tested every call and priced six derbies (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: the 2027 fixture isn't out, so there are no Round 1 prices.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- NRL tips: all 17 clubs rated and priced
- AFL multi tips: how the price of a multi adds up
- AFL predictions for 2027
- AFL ladder prediction for 2027, club by club
- How betting odds work, in decimal prices
- How I tip: the method and the full back-test
Sources
- AFL 2026 matches and results (AFL match data): afl.com.au/fixture, checked 28 September 2026.
- AFL 2026 ladder after round 24: afl.com.au/ladder, checked 28 September 2026.
- AFL 2027 season dates: afl.com.au/news/1600446, checked 28 September 2026.