AFL · LADDER 2027
AFL ladder prediction for 2027: expected wins and finals chances, club by club
Before the 2027 fixture is out, the fairest ladder prediction is a range, not a single order. I played the season 20,000 times from my end-of-2026 ratings and counted how often each club finished in each part of the ladder. Below is the predicted order by average wins, how often each club makes the top four and the finals, and how the prediction compares with where they finished in 2026.
The predicted 2027 ladder
Clubs are in order of average wins across the simulated seasons, out of 23 games. The 2026 column is where each club finished the home-and-away season.
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| # | Club | Avg wins | Finals | Minor prem. | Spoon | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions | 15 | 89% | 17% | <1% | 3 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans | 14.8 | 88% | 15% | <1% | 2 |
| 3 | Geelong Cats | 14.5 | 86% | 14% | <1% | 5 |
| 4 | Fremantle | 14.3 | 85% | 13% | <1% | 1 |
| 5 | Hawthorn | 14.1 | 83% | 11% | <1% | 4 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows | 13 | 73% | 6% | 1% | 6 |
| 7 | Carlton | 12.9 | 72% | 6% | 1% | 10 |
| 8 | Melbourne | 12.7 | 70% | 6% | 1% | 7 |
| 9 | Collingwood | 11.6 | 58% | 3% | 2% | 9 |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | 11.4 | 55% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
| 11 | GWS Giants | 11.3 | 54% | 2% | 2% | 12 |
| 12 | St Kilda | 11 | 50% | 2% | 2% | 11 |
| 13 | Gold Coast Suns | 10.5 | 44% | 1% | 3% | 13 |
| 14 | North Melbourne | 10.2 | 40% | 1% | 4% | 14 |
| 15 | Port Adelaide | 8.9 | 26% | <1% | 8% | 15 |
| 16 | West Coast Eagles | 7.4 | 13% | <1% | 19% | 16 |
| 17 | Richmond | 6.9 | 10% | <1% | 23% | 17 |
| 18 | Essendon | 6.3 | 6% | <1% | 32% | 18 |
The spread of average wins is narrow on purpose. Every club carries only two-thirds of its 2026 rating into 2027, and each simulated season adds about 10 points of uncertainty to every club's strength. That pulls everyone towards the middle, as a real summer of trades, injuries and coaching changes tends to.
The top five and the rest
Five clubs stand out: Lions, Swans, Cats, Dockers, Hawks. Each makes the finals in more than 80% of my seasons, and between them they win about two-thirds of the simulated premierships. After them there is a clear step down to a middle group that makes the finals roughly half the time or more.
A ten-team finals series is forgiving: a club only has to finish in the top ten to get a chance. On my numbers, about 55% of seasons end with the tenth club on this list making it.
Biggest movers from 2026
Compare the order above with the 2026 column. Clubs whose ratings finished the year stronger than their ladder position move up, because ratings count finals and weigh margins, not just wins. Fremantle, minor premiers at 19–4 in 2026, sit a little lower here because the ratings include their Grand Final loss and weigh every result by margin.
At the bottom, the Eagles, Tigers, Bombers carry the lowest ratings and share most of the wooden-spoon chances.
How to use a ladder prediction
A ladder prediction is most useful for markets that settle on position: top four, top ten, wooden spoon. For each, compare my chance with the bookie's price by turning the price into a chance, which how betting odds work explains in two lines. For the premiership itself, my prices sit next to Ladbrokes and PointsBet on AFL predictions 2027.
Once the fixture is released in mid-November, the random draw behind these numbers can be replaced with the real one, which matters most for clubs with long interstate trips.
Questions punters ask
What will the 2027 AFL ladder look like?
Is there an AFL ladder predictor for 2027?
How many teams make the AFL finals?
How accurate are pre-season ladder predictions?
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: simulated the 2027 home-and-away season 20,000 times from my ratings after all 218 games of 2026 and ranked clubs by average wins (checked 29 September 2026). Not done yet: the fixture, due in mid-November, and trades and the draft.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- AFL predictions 2027: my prices next to the bookies'
- AFL tips: price any matchup
- NRL predictions 2027
- How I tip
Sources
- AFL 2026 matches and results (ratings input): afl.com.au/fixture, checked 28 September 2026.
- AFL 2026 ladder after round 24: afl.com.au/ladder, checked 28 September 2026.
- AFL 2027 season dates: afl.com.au/news/1600446, checked 28 September 2026.