AFL · EARLY CALLS FOR 2027
AFL predictions for 2027: my premiership price for every club, next to the bookies' prices
Brisbane have won three flags in a row, and the bookies already have them near the top of the 2027 market at $5 to $6. I played the 2027 season 20,000 times from my end-of-2026 ratings and put my own price on every club. Below, the two sit side by side, with the time each bookie price was taken, so you can see where the market and my ratings disagree.
My price and the bookies', club by club
My price is 1 divided by the share of simulated seasons a club won. The bookie columns are the premiership prices as taken on 29 September 2026: Ladbrokes at 6:21 am AEST and PointsBet at 6:24 am AEST. Neds had the same prices as Ladbrokes for every club, so it isn't shown separately.
A premiership bet sits with the bookie for a year. Before you choose where, I compare six licensed bookies on deposits, PayID and withdrawals, in their own words.
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| Club | Premiers | My price | Ladbrokes | PointsBet | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 16% | $6.40 | $12.00 | $11.00 | 88% |
| Brisbane Lions | 15% | $6.49 | $5.00 | $6.00 | 89% |
| Geelong Cats | 13% | $7.62 | $12.00 | $11.00 | 86% |
| Fremantle | 12% | $8.26 | $6.00 | $6.00 | 85% |
| Hawthorn | 11% | $9.06 | $5.00 | $6.00 | 83% |
| Adelaide Crows | 6% | $15.86 | $21.00 | $15.00 | 73% |
| Carlton | 6% | $16.10 | $16.00 | $17.00 | 72% |
| Melbourne | 6% | $17.83 | $23.00 | $21.00 | 70% |
| Collingwood | 3% | $32.95 | $17.00 | $19.00 | 58% |
| Western Bulldogs | 3% | $33.56 | $12.00 | $9.00 | 55% |
| GWS Giants | 3% | $37.52 | $26.00 | $51.00 | 54% |
| St Kilda | 2% | $45.25 | $41.00 | $34.00 | 50% |
| Gold Coast Suns | 2% | $61.54 | $26.00 | $26.00 | 44% |
| North Melbourne | 1% | $74.91 | $101.00 | $67.00 | 40% |
| Port Adelaide | 1% | $188.68 | $81.00 | $101.00 | 26% |
| West Coast Eagles | <1% | $200+ | $151.00 | $151.00 | 13% |
| Richmond | <1% | $200+ | $151.00 | $251.00 | 10% |
| Essendon | <1% | $200+ | $151.00 | $251.00 | 6% |
"Finals" is how often a club made the top ten, assuming the 2026 format with two wildcard finals carries over. Bookie prices move; these are a snapshot, not a live market.
Where my ratings and the market disagree
Sydney and Geelong. My ratings have the Swans at $6.40 and the Cats at $7.62; both were $12 at Ladbrokes and $11 at PointsBet. The bookies are paying more than my price on both, which on my numbers is the right way round for a punter.
Hawthorn. The market has the Hawks equal favourite at $5 to $6; I have them at $9.06. My ratings have them fifth on 2026 results; the market sees something else, perhaps the list or the way their 2026 finished. Here the bookie is paying less than my price.
The Western Bulldogs. $12 at Ladbrokes and $9 at PointsBet, against my $33.56. Among clubs the market rates as contenders, this is the biggest gap. Either the market knows something about their 2027 list that 2026 results don't show, or it is a short price.
None of that makes a futures bet a good idea by itself. My ratings know nothing about trades, the draft or injuries, all of which are in the market's price. A gap is a reason to look closer.
What I assumed
- No fixture yet. Each club plays every other club once and random repeat games up to 23, home and away at random.
- Two-thirds carry-over. Each club starts 2027 on two-thirds of its end-of-2026 rating.
- Summer uncertainty of about 10 points either way in a club's true strength, redrawn for every simulated season.
- Home edge and travel as in my ratings: 3 points at home, 10 when the visitor crosses a state line. The Grand Final is played on neutral terms.
The bottom of the ladder
The Bombers, Tigers and Eagles carry the lowest ratings into 2027 and share most of the wooden-spoon chances between them: about 32%, 23% and 19%. Expected wins for every club, and how often each makes the finals, are on AFL ladder prediction.
Questions punters ask
Who will win the 2027 AFL premiership?
Why are your prices different from the bookies'?
When is the AFL 2027 fixture released?
Can Brisbane win four in a row?
Tips, ratings and prices for NRL and AFL
Published · Last checked
What I did for this page: simulated the 2027 AFL season 20,000 times from my ratings after all 218 games of 2026, and took the 2027 premiership prices from Ladbrokes, Neds and PointsBet on 29 September 2026 between 6:21 and 6:25 am AEST. Not done yet: the 2027 fixture, and trades and the draft, which the ratings can't see.
How I tip · Sources for this page · How we make money. A bookie's commission doesn't change my ratings, my prices or the order of bookies.
Read next
- AFL ladder prediction 2027: expected wins for all 18 clubs
- AFL tips: every club's rating and the matchup calculator
- NRL predictions 2027, Perth Bears included
- How betting odds work: reading a futures market
Sources
- AFL 2026 matches and results (ratings input): afl.com.au/fixture, checked 28 September 2026.
- AFL 2027 season dates: afl.com.au/news/1600446, checked 28 September 2026.
- Ladbrokes AFL Premiership 2027 market, taken 29 September 2026, 6:21 am AEST: ladbrokes.com.au/, checked 29 September 2026.
- Neds AFL Premiership 2027 market, taken 29 September 2026, 6:22 am AEST: neds.com.au/, checked 29 September 2026.
- PointsBet AFL Outrights 2027, Premiership Winner, taken 29 September 2026, 6:24 am AEST: pointsbet.com.au/, checked 29 September 2026.